It is going to be a hard winter.
Posted on July 13, 2009
Filed Under General Insanity |
When the President went to have discussions with the Russian government upper management last week, they had three items on their agenda. Interestingly, the number two item on the agenda was the “coming world famine”. Russian Intel expects 100 million to 1 billion people to die this winter due to a lack of food and they wanted to talk about it. I can understand why.
Whether you buy into the Global Warming issue or not, the serious point here is there are many countries on the brink of starvation and along with an El Nino forming in the Pacific, it spells disaster for world food production. This means cold, wet summers for the central and eastern USA, poor monsoons in southeast Asia and India and major disruptions in weather in China, Australia and other breadbaskets of the world. Put this together with a dramatic shortage of water in India and China due to aquifer loss, and you have a combination for a terrible harvest this year.
“The mortality rate for children under-five in Pakistan is 99 deaths per 1000 children, according to Global Health Council. About half of under-five deaths occur in six countries with large populations: India, Nigeria, Democratic Republic of Congo, Ethiopia, Pakistan and China.” They all suffer from a lack of water and diminishing aquifers.(http://southasiainvestor.blogspot.com/2009/03/world-water-day-water-scarcity-hurting.html)
Add to this the coming problem with the Uganda Fungus on wheat (Ug99) that is destroying major harvests in the Middle-East and other areas of the world and you can see that this year it is going to be a hard winter for a lot of people. Major food producing areas of the world are going to experience severe reductions to their usual harvest yields of both wheat and rice. This means starvation around the globe.
While many may think that the food system in the USA and Europe will keep the cities of the developed nations fed, think again. California for example is in its third year of drought and the Ogallala Aquifer that feeds most of the heartland states is being both depleted and polluted due to overuse. (http://www.waterencyclopedia.com/Oc-Po/Ogallala-Aquifer.html) The exception is the US corn harvest looks fairly decent for this year. The bottom line though, is we live in a world economy and food shortages anywhere creates increased food prices everywhere.
Now throw in a coming worldwide money inflation disaster along with increasing oil prices (and God forbid, a new war in the Middle-East) and you have a formula for a mega-famine, just as the Russian Intel services are predicting. Here is what almost always happens during times of inflation. Historically, as the price of food starts to skyrocket the various national governments, concerned for the “poor people” of the country, try to fix the price of staples like bread and rice in an attempt to keep food for the masses affordable. Quickly the bakers then the farmers start loosing money trying to produce and sell at fixed prices, so they stop making bread and growing grains or they just go broke and go out-of-business. At that stage, the poor can afford bread, but there simply is none to buy, making the inevitable mass starvation even worse. No bread, no flour, no rice, no corn, no wheat, just empty shelves and starving people.
So far I have suggested that everyone who reads my blog buy food, buy silver and keep cash on hand in case of a Bank Holiday. When I originally said to buy food, I recommended a six-month supply. Now is the time to buy food and keep a 12-month supply of food staples on hand. This is extremely important for everyone who reads my blog. Buy it now while it is still cheap and available on grocery shelves. Because, all things considered, it looks like it is going to be a hard winter. (http://waltonfeed.com/old/self/plan.html)
Clayton
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An update on El Nino forming in the Pacific.
http://www.fourwinds10.com/siterun_data/environment/weather_and_climate/news.php?q=1247676110
Clayton
Another update. The NOAA has now said the El Nino is forming and the only issue left to resolve is how strong will it be. Expect the El Nino to last through the spring of 2010.
http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.html
Clayton
I see that a 2-lb. can of Maxwell House coffee has jumped from $6.00/can to $7.50/can today. Fortunately, I had heard that the coffee harvest coming out of Columbia was going to be really poor this year and stocked up a year’s supply. I am afraid this story is only the “first of many.”
Clayton
This is from: http://www.marketskeptics.com/2009/06/usda-deliberately-misleading-investors.html
“Lets have a look at supply, or to be a bit more specific world trade. According to the USDA the world’s largest wheat exporters in 2008/09 will be:
The US, the EU-27, Russia, Canada, Australia, Ukraine & Argentina. These are the top six nations that keep much of the world supplied with wheat.
Let’s have a look at their production prospects for 2009/10:
________2008/09 (MMT)____2009/10 (MMT)
———————————————
US__________68.0_____________57.0
EU-27_______151.7____________134.4
Russia_______ 58.0_____________63.7
Canada_______28.6_____________23.4
Australia______21.5_____________22.2
Ukraine ______25.9_____________18.0
Argentina______8.3______________7.7
———————————————
Total _______362.0____________326.4
———————————————
So the top six exporting nations that account for over half of world production and 87.5% of global trade in wheat are set to see their output fall by around 35.6 MMT in the year ahead.”
Further, none of this analysis looks at China and India wheat harvest projections. They are expected to have major drop offs in harvests and will become net importers of wheat for the first time in generations. Here is the real stunner: http://www.globalresearch.ca/index.php?context=va&aid=12252
The good news is that the 2008 wheat harvest was great and the US is at a 118% stock level over last year. (http://www.idahowheat.org/news/default.asp?id=4234)
The bad news is that the US government has sold all of its wheat reserves used to provide for other nations facing famine. The US Bill Emerson Humanitarian Trust is now at zero. (http://www.marketskeptics.com/2009/07/us-govt-completely-out-of-wheat.html)
This means that a bad wheat harvest this year will put everyone on a market basis for wheat including the poor nations of the world. This is another indicator of a coming world famine for late 2009 and most of 2010.
Clayton
When it rains, it pours.
http://cornandsoybeandigest.com/davidkohl/0818-FDIC-ag-bank-crisis/
Clayton